Comportamento das variáveis macroeconômicas da S&P e sua relação com os índices setoriais da B3 durante o período de pandemia do vírus Sars-CoV-2

Abstract

This study aimed to show the behavior of the macroeconomic variables used by S&P Global Ratings to assess sovereign risk in the year 2019 and in the year 2020, during the Sars-CoV-2 virus pandemic, and to verify whether there is a correlation of these variables with the Index Bm&fBovespa Financial, Electric Energy Index, Bm&fBovespa Basic Materials Index and Real Estate Index. Using documentary research, macroeconomic data were collected from the Time Series Generator System of the Central Bank of Brazil and adjusted according to the methodology described. It was found that there was a reduction in economic activity from April 2020 onwards, not returning to previous levels according to adjusted GDP. There was also an increase in exchange rate variation, a reduction in external risk and an increase in fiscal risk. Sectoral indices fell in March 2020 and three of the four indices ended the year above the value found in February 2020 and one of the important correlations found was that of the Basic Materials Index with GDP per capita in dollars. It was concluded that the research fulfilled the objectives and showed that Engineers should be aware of the evolution of fiscal, exchange and interest rate risk in their decision-making.