A Viabilidade do Programa Renda Básica Energética: Uma Análise Ex-Ante do PL 624/2023

Abstract

This study analyzes the feasibility of the Basic Energy Income Program (REBE), proposed by Bill No. 624/2023, as an alternative to the Social Electricity Tari! (TSEE), with a focus on the state of Goiás, Brazil. The research is grounded in the context of energy poverty and the increasing pressure on tari! subsidies, intensified by the changes introduced by Provisional Measure No. 1,300/2025, which expanded full exemptions for low-income consumers. A quantitative approach is adopted through an ex-ante analysis, based on data from the ANEEL Subsidy and Social Programs Control System (SCS) covering the period from 2019 to 2025, with projections extending to 2050. The methodology integrates computational modeling and machine learning techniques to forecast energy demand, combined with photovoltaic system sizing, cost analysis (CAPEX and OPEX), financing structure, and economic feasibility assessment using indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and discounted payback. The results indicate a continuous increase in subsidized demand under the current model, highlighting the long-term unsustainability of the TSEE as a policy based solely on subsidies. In contrast, the REBE demonstrates potential to transform a recurring public expenditure into a structured investment, with amortization over time and positive impacts on public finances. Additionally, the program contributes to energy inclusion, the reduction of energy poverty, and the expansion of renewable energy use, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals. As an applied contribution, the study proposes a regulatory framework to address energy poverty and presents the development of the REBE-Sim software, which enables the simulation of implementation scenarios, enhancing the replicability of the analysis. The findings suggest that REBE is economically viable under specific scenarios and represents a promising alternative for the reformulation of energy public policies in Brazil.